As summer beckons so too does the return of sports from the COVID-19 shutdown. Beginning with UFC and NASCAR events in mid-May is that a reality. Major League Baseball is working on an agreement for its season to start in early July. While the NFL has flatly stated that the show must go on this fall. In hand with that will be full rotations of games and odds at offshore sportsbooks. In view if this inevitability let’s assess the essentials of sports handicapping. Preparation is power and now is the time.
Study and Learn About a Team’s Leadership Structure
Above all a strong leadership structure will be vital in a team’s success after COVID-19. Proven leaders such as Joe Maddon of the Los Angeles Angels will be pivotal in jumpstarting franchise fortunes. In like manner is Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens. Leaders that have histories of being able to adapt to any circumstance could thrive in the post COVID-19 landscape. Learn who they are.
Of course, the best example of all is New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Through the years he has had top players come and go. He has coached through the very evolution of offensive football. From the basics of the past to video game systems of today Belichick thrived regardless. Now he faces perhaps the greatest challenge of his career. Indeed, The Hoodie is charged to thrive without his sidekick of 20 years, Tom Brady. Would you bet against him at a sportsbook? In a once in a lifetime situation like this Belichick could thrive like never before.
Hype and Acclaim Often Equal Damaged Value
First among examples of how media hype destroys value are the 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers. LA was coming off a spectacular 104-58 regular season record in 2017. But a warning sign that season was that the Dodgers were slightly but not overwhelmingly profitable on the board. Media hyped drowned the public about how unbeatable the Dodgers were. In fact, it was said that a dynasty beckoned in Los Angeles.
In 2018 the Dodgers dropped to 92-71. However, that was still good enough for the National League West Division title. Problematic was that they were one of the biggest money losers of all in MLB wagering. How can that possibly be? Oddsmakers were completely cognizant of public betting demand. The guys that set the lines knew gamblers were lining up for LA like a McDonald’s at lunch hour. Remember the linemaker’s job is to line up betting action equally to both sides. Thus, the price on the Dodgers had to be inflated to chase away action. This leads to the importance of assessing value.
Learn How to Assess Wagering Value
Certainly the 2018 Dodgers are a great example of how to not pay too much for any team. But they are hardly alone. “America’s Team” is another publicly hyped name brand. Jerry Jones is a billionaire marketing genius. As owner of the Dallas Cowboys he has put them on the world’s marquee. Because of this the Cowboys are consistently overpriced on the NFL board. Too many fan boys will wager on Dallas regardless of price. Which makes the opposing team a bargain. More often than not the Cowboys lay more points than what is merited in a matchup.
Another name brand carrying an enhanced retail markup price are the NBA Los Angeles Lakers. Correspondingly the Lakers are one of the most popular plays on the board. Especially as a home favorite on national TV. In this situation you must get in the head of the average “square.” The Lakers at home on a Friday night ESPN telecast automatically equates to a betting online win. At least to these bettors.
But “sharps” know that LA’s ignored opponent will be getting more points than deserved. More emphatically the sharps place themselves on the side of the sportsbook. Now ask yourself which side of the game do you want to be on?
Conduct a Full Review
With sports still sidelined this is an opportunity to study and learn. Concurrently you can use this time to review various betting and value scenarios. Go through past results and assess the mindset of public vs. sportsbook. As a result, you’ll be ready when action resumes!