How to Pick a Winning Bet in the NFL for Beginners

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NFL football is one of the most popular sporting events in the US. It is also one of the most popular and crowded betting events, and it’s easy to know why. Teams only play once per weekend, and bettors can spend the weekdays studying trends, analyzing gameplays, and assessing performance to the point of obsession. All of that to win big time.

Because of the popularity of the sport, people have invented many ways to place a wager. Not only that, techniques and strategies have also been made to win a lot of money. Because of that, betting can be quite complicated if you don’t know the basics, not to mention it can also be quite hard to win if you don’t know what you’re doing. 

That said, here are some strategies and techniques you can use to land a winning bet on the NFL and gain some of that precious bucks.

Betting on the Point Spread

If you have a little bit of experience in betting, you may have heard of the term “spread betting.” It is the most popular way to bet on the NFL. If you didn’t, you might have heard some of these terms: betting against the spread, ATS, or point spread betting. 

Football games, like any other game, mostly have uneven matchups. That means that not every match has a fair playing ground. You can easily see this in the power rankings. To level the playing field a bet, bookies cover the spread. Hence, it’s not enough for you to bet on the winning team. For you to win the bet, the team should win by a specific number of points.

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That said, understanding each team’s gameplay and performance is necessary to accurately predict the point spread at the end of the match. Also, it’s not necessary to bet on the winning team every time. Underdogs tend to do well when everything is not in their favor like they’re the away team, or the crowd is hostile.

Understanding the Pros and Cons of Home and Away Team

More often than not, the home team usually has a win percentage of 55% to 60%. The average winning margin in these cases is three points. That is a good value if you are betting on the moneyline. However, it is still essential to understand what it’s like for each team both on the away and home side.

Home teams don’t necessarily travel and be exhausted before the match since the stadium is more than likely close to their homes. Because of that, they require little to no rest and recovery. During the game, the crowd can significantly impact the home team because of their cheers. For the away team, this can impact negatively on their comms. 

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However, the betting value for winning teams is often low, making them yield little income, not to mention that the away team has more valuable betting values. This is because, over the years, sportsbooks are becoming neutral, meaning they are more focused on making the value of the away team bigger.

However, understanding these factors alone won’t make you win a bet. Getting deep in each team’s performance and players will give you a more accurate depiction of what they can do in the field. Also, underdogs don’t necessarily lose every match. Some teams do well under pressure, and some can even have a better performance when they’re away. Moreover, playing on the home team can be more nerve-wracking because of the pressure to do well and your peers’ expectations.

Underdog Value

It’s essential if you know how to find the value of an underdog pick. But you might ask, why would I bet on a losing team? That’s simple. The winning team does not necessarily win every time. Also, the winning team is tied with the point spread (if you’re betting against the spread). If you bet on an underdog and win, you will not only get your money back twofold. You can also get some more cash. 

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In-Game Live Betting

Many bookies allow you to place bets during the game. This is because the odds and lines can shift throughout the game, making the probabilities of winning depend on the progress of the game. 

However, doing an in-game live betting can also be risky if you don’t know what you’re doing. To give you more success in this kind of betting, you should always focus on how it progresses. This will make it better if you know how the game works or if you play the sport itself.


Picking on a winning bet is more complicated, and it can even be more complicated if you don’t know how it works. That said, doing tons of research not only on how to bet but also on how the game works and each team’s performance can yield better results. Focus your attention on the game, the odds, and lines, and you might make it big.

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