One of the most exciting things about basketball betting or any form of sports betting is that you can build a profitable strategy by yourself and the options are endless. However, no matter how intricate or complicated your strategy is, picking winners, finding value, and making sure you turn in a profit should be the center of your betting strategy. In short, as long as you include these three factors, you can play around however you want.
There are so many approaches you can take to make a profit, and if you find or build one that you think will give you a lot of profit, then you might as well take it. However, because of virtually endless approaches, you can do in sports betting, it would be a struggle for someone looking for a good and trusted strategy. For this reason, the strategies we will be talking about later are advanced open-ended strategies.
This means that it can be interpreted in multiple ways. These are advanced strategies that will further help you find value and make great picks. That said, you can plug them into your betting system as foundations for your career in sports betting. Whether you take these strategies with a grain of salt or trust them completely, there is no denying that they will help you turn in big profits in the long run.
Watch Closely for Moving Lines
As a bettor, you should accept that there are practically a lot of genius bettors out there that can turn in a small shift in the line to a big profit. However, this statement is not to discourage you but to encourage you to look to these experts when it comes to moving lines. Of course, if you’re one of them, this strategy won’t affect you that much, but then again, you won’t be reading this article if you’re one already.
But I digress. If you see a massive shift in the line, you will most probably find an expert betting on the other side of the public. Why? It’s simple, really. Generally, the public isn’t always right, and most of the time, they’re just going with either popularity or with their hearts. In short, their bets aren’t based on logic most of the time. Let’s have an example.
Let’s say the Lakers are playing the Cavaliers, who have been the champion the previous year. All of the sports outlets and sports news are talking about the Cavs and how they are the most likely champions of the current season.
The public will start to bet heavily on them. Originally, the Cavs have a -6 spread, but now that the public is betting heavily on them, sportsbooks would then shift it to -3 to even out the playing field. At that moment, the experts would then find great value in the Lakers and will start betting on them.
Focus More on True Shooting Percentage
When dipping into metrics in the NBA, people tend to focus more on the traditional field-goal efficiency. However, this stat is misleading since it doesn’t show you the whole picture. Instead, try to focus more on a player’s true shooting percentage. It gives you a better overall picture of a player’s performance anyway.
One of the reasons why field-goal efficiency is misleading is because it doesn’t take into account free throws. Free throws are one of the most efficient ways of scoring in a game and are often the difference between wins and losses. And field-goal efficiency totally ignores that in terms of handicapping games.
Also, true shooting percentage indicates a player’s shooting ability by differently categorizing field goals and free throws. For example, in terms of true shooting percentage, James Harden is better than Andre Iguodala even though Andre’s field goal percentage is better.
Pay Attention to Big Home Underdogs
Every team despised losing in their hometown in front of their friends, families, and countless fans, especially teams in the NCAA since most of their teams have more than 5.0 PPG. Because of this, underdogs tend to outperform their previous performances and do a better job doing their roles. But do they actually win most of the time? Of course not. Motivation can only do so much as basketball is a game of skill. However, if you think motivation is completely useless, you’re wrong.
Totals on an Even Game
This is one you should very well remember if you’re into totals betting. Before you go ahead and bet, you should read up on a sportsbook’s rules about totals. Some bookies out there don’t include the overtime points in the total tally. If that’s the case, then this strategy is useless. However, if they do, and the teams are bumping on the same number towards the end of the game, betting totals over is a safe bet.
Regardless of basketball’s entertainment value, it’s one of the most profitable forms of sports betting today. Also, basketball betting is pure fun, except when you keep losing, that is. So if you want to further polish your basketball betting skills, then try the strategies mentioned above. You will surely turn in a big profit, or learn a thing or two at least.